AFC Championship Breakdown: Can the Bills Finally Get Past the Chiefs?
- Jake Barkin
- Jan 24
- 6 min read
For the fourth time in their careers, the NFL’s two best quarterbacks will face off once again with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Will it be Patrick Mahomes who is on a mission to three-peat as a Super Bowl champion or will it be Josh Allen who has never made it past this position in his career? In this article, I will analyze and predict the AFC championship game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
With a week 17 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Kansas City Chiefs clinched the top seed in the AFC allowing them to rest their starters for 24 days! By allowing players such as Chris Jones and Patrick Mahomes to completely heal from their respective injuries, the Chiefs were as healthy as it gets in their first playoff game against the Houston Texans. Opposite to the Chiefs, the Houston Texans were wounded with injuries as both starting safeties, two starting receivers, and an offensive guard were all out in their divisional round matchup against the Chiefs. In the Chiefs first playoff game of the postseason, they looked okay as they still won but only managed to win by one possession at home as the Chiefs beat the Texans by a score of 27-19.
In their win, the referees were very involved as Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. was called for a roughing of the passer penalty despite not initiating any contact on Mahomes. While I believe the Chiefs still would have won this game, it should have been a lot closer and many fans are upset as the Chiefs seem to have everything bounced their way. Especially for a team that has won back-to-back Super Bowls, it is evident that the Chiefs have embraced a villainous role in the league unless you are from Missouri or consider yourself a Taylor Swift fan. While the Chiefs usually have the Bills number come to the playoffs, this will be the first real team they have played in the playoffs and must be playing at their best if they want to advance to their third consecutive Super Bowl.
With an impressive 13-4 record, the Buffalo Bills earned the second seed in the AFC despite many critics calling this season a rebuilding year for the Bills as they lost so many big names in the offseason. However, the Buffalo Bills have been on fire all season including a win over the Chiefs this season where Josh Allen scored a long rushing touchdown on fourth down sealing the game and ending the Chiefs perfect and undefeated season. In the NFL, it is extremely difficult to beat a team twice in the same season. You can ask the Bills who beat the Ravens last week in the divisional round as they were demolished by the Ravens 35-10 in their first matchup back in week 4. After an MVP calibre season, Josh Allen has looked as good as he has ever been in Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s “everybody eats” offense. With the departure of Stefon Diggs in the offseason, the Bills culture has improved severely and despite stars like Amari Cooper not getting the ball that much, the Bills are winning consistently in their new run-first conservative gameplan. Despite a 4-1 regular season record against the Chiefs, Josh Allen is 0-3 against them in the playoffs regardless of how well he has performed in all three playoff losses. This might be Allen’s last opportunity to even the scales before it is too late.
Breaking down their matchup, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been the best offensive coach in the NFL for decades as he has built a dynasty with both the Eagles and the Chiefs. After the departure of wideout Tyreek Hill, Reid has completely redeveloped his offense to a more conservative and situational approach where checking it down, running the ball, and moving the chains is at his top priorities. I believe that Joe Brady’s new-look offense is a copy of the Chiefs version as Joe Brady realized how effective it can be if you have an elite quarterback such as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes. In this conference championship game, the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball as they were forced to move Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney to left tackle as that position has been very weak for the Chiefs. With Mike Caliendo in his place, expect the Bills defensive line led by Ed Oliver and Gregory Rousseau to find a lot of success in stopping the run.
This will force Mahomes to find other ways to advance the ball which he is already so good at. In every matchup against the Bills, Mahomes has always found a way to damage the Bills using his feet as the Bills are so cautious of Mahomes abilities down the field. With Bills superstar linebacker Matt Milano going against Travis Kelce all game, it will be up to youngster Terrel Bernard to keep Mahomes at bay he was successful in their first matchup as he impressively picked off Mahomes who tried hitting Kelce on a big play. Instead of the Chiefs sticking to their situational offense, I expect Mahomes to target Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, and DeAndre Hopkins a lot deep down the field as the Bills are currently very weak in the secondary. To explain, in the Bills win against the Ravens last week, Bills safety Taylor Rapp hurt his hip and is out against the Chiefs this weekend meaning that rookie safety Cole Bishop will fill in his place who has been very bad in coverage all season. Bills other starting safety Damar Hamlin is also weak in coverage as the comeback player of the year finalist is much better at tackling in open space compared to his man and zone coverages. I expect the Chiefs to have their way with the Bills on the air and it will take fluke turnovers similar to last week to stop Mahomes and their efficient offense.
On the other side of the ball, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo coaches a very strong defence that plays tight man coverage and sends a lot of overloaded blitzes. This defensive scheme works very well against inconsistent quarterbacks who have a weak offensive line such as the Houston Texans who they defeated last weekend. However, Josh Allen is the MVP this season and is playing his best football right now. Additionally, the Bills offensive line has taken massive strides as tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have allowed Allen to do his thing all season long. In my opinion, the Bills offense matches up very well against the Chiefs defense as the Chiefs have a weak secondary too outside of cornerback Trent McDuffie. With Amari Cooper or Mack Hollins playing decoy against McDuffie, I expect Khalil Shakir and the other Bills weapons to beat Chamarri Conner and the rest of the Chiefs secondary who have a tough job to do in Spagnuolo’s aggressive defense. I believe this game will come down to the coaching between Sean McDermott and Andy Reid.
For my official prediction, I believe the Buffalo Bills will return to the Super Bowl after a 30-year drought and stop the Kansas City Chiefs from three-peating. Despite a 15-2 record, the Chiefs have won many of these games by blocked field goals, horrible penalties, and just little things that go their way every time. Moreover, the Buffalo Bills beat the Chiefs already earlier in the season despite not even playing that great. The Bills have been consistent for the entire season and I am confident that Josh Allen won’t crack under pressure and will take the Bills back to the Super Bowl. I expect the Bills to be leading by one possession before the Bills force a flukey turnover ending the game.
That is it for this AFC championship breakdown. Let me know what your thoughts are on this matchup between the NFL’s top two quarterbacks and if you believe Josh Allen can finally defeat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Comment down below who you think will win this game and who you believe will win the NFC championship too. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s article as I will be breaking down and analyzing the intense NFC championship matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders. Stay updated by following the official X account of Blitz & Brawlers and try out our brand-new quiz!
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