AFC Playoff Picture

As the NFL season is coming to a close, let's take a deeper dive into the AFC playoff picture. So far, six teams have clinched the playoffs and there are only three other teams eligible for the last and remaining seventh spot in the playoffs. Firstly, the Kansas City Chiefs have clinched the first seed in the AFC sitting at a league-high 15-1 record. After going on the road and defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas 29-10, they have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and will host every playoff game they play outside the Super Bowl in the loud and chaotic Arrowhead Stadium. Arrowhead Stadium is notorious for being a tough environment for away fans to play in due to the cold weather, loud fans and consistent cheering. However, the back-to-back Super Super Bowl champions have an even bigger advantage that nobody is noticing. Because they played four days ahead of the regular schedule on Christmas and not a typical Sunday, their advantage to rest their players is more paramount than we have ever seen before. To explain, the Chiefs clinched the one seed implies that they do not have to play their players in their regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos and will also have a bye week in the wildcard round due to finishing as the highest seed in the AFC. By the time the divisional round comes, the Chiefs will have at minimum a 24-day bye period allowing their players to rest and recover in addition to having extra preparation strategically for their first opponent come the divisional round. Key players such as their star quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been dealing with an ankle sprain and this rest will allow him to make a full recovery before their first game. Stud defensive tackle Chris Jones injured his calf in week 16 and has not played since but this rest window will also allow him to fully recover before their first playoff game. While the Chiefs have had a bumpy season even though they are 15-1, they are playing their best football right now which is important going into the playoffs. I expect them to have an easy path to the AFC championship game and will have to win at home against one of the other AFC contenders to make their third Super Bowl in a row. The current Super Bowl favourites look to three-peat this upcoming playoffs.

Moving on, the Buffalo Bills despite many critics believing they would not even win the AFC East have just clinched the second seed in the AFC after defeating the New York Jets 40-14 in spectacular fashion. Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had a historic season as he has taken this team back to the playoffs for the sixth year in a row and won their respective division for the fifth consecutive season. Now sitting at 13-3, the Bills have nothing to play for in their regular-season finale against the New England Patriots as they cannot move up or down in the standings. While the Bills will use week 18 as an important rest week for their starters, Josh Allen will start the game and take the first couple of stats to keep his consecutive starting streak alive. The Buffalo Bills have statistically been one of the best offences in football averaging 31.8 points per game. The Bills under offensive coordinator and play caller Joe Brady have been efficient in their well-balanced system. Through their elite offensive line in pro bowler Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, the Bills have been amazing running the ball. Going through Josh Allen, James Cook who leads all running backs in touchdowns, and even backup Ray Davis have had an impressive rookie season allowed them to win many games on the ground. On the other side of the ball, Khalil Shakir has been a reliable slot receiver for Josh Allen to go to when it matters the most. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid have also been consistent targets and have helped the Bills succeed in 12 personnel formations. Mack Hollins has been the best free agent acquisition for the Bills as he has scored five touchdowns and has made major impacts in the run game. Third-string running back Ty Johnson has also created himself a role in the receiving game as well. What makes the Bills a Super Bowl contender is their “everybody eats” mentality as even stud receiver Amari Cooper does not mind not getting the ball if it means the team as a whole succeeds. This veteran group is due to make a run at the Lombardi trophy but will have to likely go through the Baltimore Ravens who beat the Bills earlier this season and additionally, the Chiefs who are 3-0 against the Bills in the playoffs. While the Bills defeated the Chiefs in the regular season giving them their only loss, it is evident that the playoff matchup is far more important and the Bills might only have this last chance to defeat the Chiefs before they can potentially three-peat. The Bills are in their prime window now as they will have to pay many of their underrated role players in the upcoming offseason. I believe the Bills can go to the Super Bowl and even win it all but the defence will have to play more consistently and avoid allowing their opponents to score 40 points in games.

Defending MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are on pace to finish as the third seed in the AFC after demolishing the Texans 31-2 not allowing their offence to score at all. While the Ravens have beaten many strong contenders such as the Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders, their inconsistency has held them back from being one of the top seeds in the AFC and forcing them to play their starters in week 18 in order to clinch the contested AFC North. The Ravens have proven this season that they have the most dangerous running game in the league through their two best players Lamar Jackson and juggernaut Derrick Henry. The key for the Ravens to make a playoff push is a simple two-step process. The first step is to take early leads as being behind in games prohibits the Ravens from running the ball which is their most efficient way of scoring. Their dangerous run game allows for their receivers and tight ends to become hard to guard on play-action plays due to the large focus defences have on Baltimore’s run game. The Ravens receivers statistically have the biggest separation which allows Lamar Jackson to produce big plays and this offensive formula will be difficult for opposing defences to guard. On the other hand, their defence has been more inconsistent but is playing their best football right now which can only help them going into the playoffs. Veteran Kyle Van Noy has had a career resurgence since signing with the Ravens last year and has been the glue for their defence contributing 11.5 sacks on the season which is tied for fourth-best in the NFL. In the secondary, stud safety Kyle Hamilton, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins, and pro bowler cornerback Marlon Humphrey have made large impacts for the Ravens this season. The Ravens on paper are one of the best teams in football and if they play consistently in the playoffs, they can give the Chiefs and Bills trouble and can easily be the team in the AFC making the Super Bowl.

Going down the line, the AFC South Champions Houston Texans have clinched the fourth seed and the last remaining team with a home game going into the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Texans, they have suffered the most significant injuries of any team in the NFL which will play a large factor in the postseason. Specifically, newly acquired star receiver Stefon Diggs tore his ACL earlier in the season and just ten days ago star receiver Tank Dell is also out for the season and will likely miss the entire 2025 season as well due to his scary injury in week 16 against the Chiefs. Starting safety’s Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward are currently on the injured reserve list and additionally starting guard Shaq Mason is questionable for the playoffs too. Additionally, star quarterback CJ Stroud has had a decline compared to his rookie season due to his current supporting cast. CJ Stroud has been sacked the second most of any quarterback this season just behind Caleb Williams. CJ Stroud will have to turn it around and carry his team in order for Houston to go on a playoff run. At their best, the Texans can compete and defeat any team in their way such as beating the Bills in week 5 when they were fully healthy but just previously, they lost to the Ravens in week 17 31-2 where the offence was shut out and nowhere to be seen. The Texans will likely face the Steelers or Chargers in the first round and even at home will be underdogs. It will be interesting to see if playcaller and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can turn things around after an impressive 2023 campaign.

Going onto the wildcard teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers have had a magical 2024 season as many believed they would finish last in the competitive AFC North. With an impressive 10-6 record, the Steelers are looking to cause chaos in the postseason with their tough defence and their bootleg special on offence where veteran and Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson finds star receiver George Pickens on big plays. When Wilson was injured, the Steelers under Justin Fields started 5-2 and head coach Mike Tomlin despite their record still decided to bench Fields for Wilson which at first was controversial has now looked to be a great decision. Mike Tomlin has also extended his historic streak of 18 consecutive seasons of having an even or winning record which no other head coach in NFL history has ever reached. While the Steelers are a wildcard team, they are still eligible to win the AFC North going into the last week of the season but it seems unlikely as they would have to beat the Cincinnati Bengals who have everything to play for in addition to the Ravens losing to the Cleveland Browns who have been disappointing and will likely lose to improve their position for the upcoming 2025 NFL draft. Fortunately for the Steelers, a win in week 18 will at minimum clinch them the fifth seed in the AFC and would travel to an injured Texans team who will likely lose to any opponent they face. While the Steelers can easily advance to the divisional round, they would likely face the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens next which would all be difficult matchups for them to overcome. The Steelers have a big mountain to climb come the playoffs but can surprise many people with a deep playoff run in January if the cards fall into their favour.

Moving down the order, the Los Angeles Chargers have made massive strides in the 2024 season as Jim Harbaugh in his first year as head coach for the Chargers has taken them back to the playoffs immediately. The legendary head coach who took the 49ers to the Super Bowl and won a national championship with the Michigan Wolverines proved his coaching abilities can impact a team that last season was a complete mess. Pro bowler quarterback Justin Herbert has had a much improved season due to his supporting casts being much more reliable than in other seasons past. For starters, Justin Herbert has the honour to play behind rookie tackle Joe Alt who is set to have a historic career and star tackle Rashawn Slater who has also been very impressive. The Chargers have also acquired former Ravens running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards who have both created large roles for themselves in their underrated ground game. Through the air, Quinton Johnson who has gotten off to a very slow start as a former first-round pick has finally made improvements this season and tight end Will Dissly has additionally made a name for himself too. However, second-round rookie receiver Ladd McConkey has been by far the best asset the Chargers acquired this past season as even as a rookie, he has already surpassed over one thousand receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns. Going into the playoffs, the Chargers will likely travel to Baltimore in the wildcard round and will have a difficult path to the Super Bowl. As the sixth seed, a win over the Ravens will force the Chargers to play in Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs. It is an understatement to say that the Chargers have a tough path ahead of themselves come the playoffs.

Going onto the final seed in the playoffs, the current team that is the favourite to take the last spot in the AFC playoffs is the Denver Broncos. While many critics were doubtful of the Broncos going into this season including myself, the Broncos have had a very underrated 2024 season sitting with a winning record of 9-7. The Broncos had a disappointing 2023 season where head coach Sean Payton looked like he was not a great fit with this Broncos team. But after drafting Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in the first round, the two together have gone to great lengths to potentially make a postseason appearance this season. Bo Nix even as a rookie is 24 years old and while many believe his old age as a rookie is only a negative externality, his experience playing at Oregon has definitely helped him make his transition smooth going to the NFL. Quarterback Bo Nix has a solid arsenal of receivers that have helped him become a great player. Second-year receiver Marvin Mims Jr has created massive plays for Bo Nix elevating his deep passing accuracy. College teammate of Bo Nix Troy Franklin was also drafted to the Broncos this season which has impacted Nix positively on and off the field. Most importantly, veteran receiver Courtland Sutton has been Bo’s best receiver this season making contested catches consistently helping Bo Nix develop into the great player he is now and will become in the future. Looking at the future, the Broncos will clinch a playoff birth with a win at home against the Chiefs who will be resting their starters and will have to defeat backup quarterback Carson Wentz. While it is likely they will win, a loss for the Broncos will ensure their elimination from the playoffs so it is paramount the Broncos can defeat the Chiefs in their season finale. Assuming the Broncos can beat the Chiefs backups, they will have to go to Orchard Park and face the Buffalo Bills on the road where they would be massive underdogs. While it is not impossible, it is very unlikely even in the playoffs the Broncos could make a far run in the playoffs because as the bottom seed, they would play the top remaining seed in the AFC every single round. The Broncos have to focus on their matchup against the Chiefs first instead of looking too far forward as they can very easily still miss the playoffs.

As the current nine seed and out of the playoffs, the Cincinnati Bengals will need a lot to happen to gain a playoff birth. Coming off of a week 17 victory over the Denver Broncos in the game of the year, the Bengals will still have to beat the Steelers who will be playing their starters to have a sliver of a chance of making a playoff birth. On top of that, the Bengals will need the Broncos to lose to the resting Chiefs which is unlikely and lastly will need the Miami Dolphins to lose to the New York Jets which is also just as unlikely to happen. The Bengals have been very disappointing this season as outside of edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, the defence has been one if not the worst defence in 2024 and has given Joe Burrow and his offence no help this season. Joe Burrow on the other hand has been fantastic and has played at an MVP level. Jamar Chase has also won the triple crown this season as he is leading the league in touchdowns, receiving yards, and receptions. Chase smartly declined an extension offer made by the Bengals in hopes of getting a larger contract which he will receive now. He will likely reset the wide receiver market and become the highest-paid receiver in the league. Star receiver Tee Higgins has also had a great season where he is coming off of a three-touchdown performance against the Bengals. He too is due for a large contract extension but may also be traded as the Bengals who are already paying Burrow will have to pay Chase record-breaking money. Higgins is also well deserving of a big contract which the Bengals cannot afford. The Bengals are worth mentioning as even though they will most likely miss the playoffs, they have a great chance of upsetting the Bills in the first round and Bills fans everywhere will be glued to them in week 18 hoping the Broncos or Dolphins win which will allow Bills fans significant comfort in the first round. 

Putting it all together, the playoffs are just around the corner and by Sunday night, all wildcard matchups will be set. Even though the Chiefs have a 24-day resting period, the Bills and Ravens will have something to say to avoid the Chiefs from three peating as Super Bowl champions. Wildcard teams in the Steelers and Chargers have had underrated seasons and are worth mentioning as teams that can make some noise in the 2024 playoffs. We will see how the seventh seed plays out as the Broncos are more than likely to clinch their spot in week 18 but a blunder by the Broncos opens the window for the Dolphins and Bengals to make the playoffs too. Please leave a comment below if you have any insights, comments, or questions you would like to leave.