Chiefs vs. Texans Divisional Round Preview: Matchups, Predictions & X-Factors
- Jake Barkin
- Jan 15
- 5 min read
With the first round of the 2024 NFL playoffs officially over, the divisional round is just a few days away. In this article, I will highlight, break down, and make my official prediction for the first divisional round taking place on Saturday afternoon between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. With a spot in the AFC championship on the line, this game will hopefully be as entertaining as their previous playoff matchup in the divisional round of the 2019 NFL playoffs.
Firstly, the Kansas City Chiefs are coming off of a 24-day resting period as they clinched the first seed and a bye in the wildcard round with a week 17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. After resting their starters in their regular-season finale against the Broncos in addition to not having to play last week, the Chiefs have fully recovered after having to play three games in an eleven-day window. As the top seed in the AFC, the Chiefs had the opportunity this past weekend to relax and wait to see how each AFC wildcard game went as they will be hosting the lowest remaining seed for this upcoming weekend. Due to each home team in the AFC winning their wildcard matchup, the Chiefs will now welcome the fourth-seed Houston Texans in a rematch as these two teams previously squared off in week 16. In their previous head-to-head matchup, the Chiefs at home won easily by a score of 27-19. Unfortunately, the Texans who have been suffering from injuries all season lost their star receiver Tank Dell for the second consecutive season as Dell suffered a gruesome knee injury while catching a touchdown in their week 16 loss to the Chiefs. The injury is so severe that it is unlikely that Tank Dell will even return for the 2025 NFL season.
As for the Chiefs, fortunately, all 22 starters for them are healthy and well-rested. Only Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice is their only star player who is unavailable as he also is out for the season with a knee injury suffered back in week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs most valuable players Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones needed to get time to fully get healthy as Mahomes was battling an ankle sprain injury and Jones had to miss time due to a calf injury. As it currently stands, the Chiefs are heading into their first playoff game fully healthy while the Texans are still wounded by many injuries on both offence and defence. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud who has been sacked the second most times this season in the NFL will have to play without guard Shaq Mason who is officially ruled out of Saturday’s upcoming game. Texans tight end Dalton Shultz is questionable with a shoulder injury and his availability is very important as the Texans are already down two receivers with both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs out for the season with torn ACLs. It is important to mention that the Texans just yesterday released veteran reciever Diontae Johnson even though the Texans could desperately use a fast receiver who is exceptional at route running. Even though he was cut due to his poor on and off-field behaviour, it does not seem smart whatsoever for the Texans to be so thin at the wide receiver position heading into the divisional round. On the other side of the ball, the Texans are without both starting safeties Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward and have had to rely on their backups to fill in for them. To say the least, the Texans roster is very thinned out at the worst point in the season.
Analyzing this matchup, the Chiefs offence led through head coach and offensive play caller Andy Ried will be going against the gritty bend but don’t break defence led by Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans. While the Chiefs offensively are well balanced at every position, the Texans defence heavily relies on their star players to help their team win. To be specific, the Texans are hoping their elite edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can cause pressure on Patrick Mahomes on the edges forcing bad throws and hopefully turnovers. The Chiefs while having a top-ranked interior offensive line are very weak on the outside tackle positions. Firstly, right tackle Jawaan Taylor has been struggling throughout the season as he has been unreliable and has picked up many holding and false start penalties. The Chiefs have been so weak at left tackle that they have moved their star guard Joe Thuney to left tackle just so they can give Mahomes more protection along the edges. This adaptation has been pretty successful for the Chiefs as Thuney has been impressive playing out of his preferred position. The Chiefs tackles are in for a long day and will most likely have to double Will Anderson Jr. on most reps due to his exceptional level of play recently.
While the Texans secondary is very weak currently, they still have a superstar cornerback who has been shutting down opposing receivers throughout the season. Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. will be lineup up against Chiefs veteran reciever DeAndre Hopkins in an intense battle which will be very entertaining to watch. Texans pro bowl receiver Nico Collins will be going head to head against Chiefs pro bowl cornerback Trent McDuffie where the winner of this duel will likely determine the winner of this matchup. To explain, both Nico and McDuffie are so important to their respective teams that their performance usually determines the outcome of the game. I can ensure that if Nico Collins does not score a touchdown and is limited to under 100 receiving yards, the Texans will have no chance as their passing attack lives and dies through Nico Collins as he is most definitly their best and only receiver who can truly impact a game.
As for my official prediction, I believe the Chiefs will once again dominate and win even covering the large 8.5-point spread per CBS Sports. The Chiefs on paper are simply just better at almost every single position. The Chiefs right now have the better quarterback, receiving group, offensive line, interior defensive lineman, cornerback group, and even safeties too. Unlike the Chiefs, the Texans are not well-balanced due to their ongoing injuries and heavily rely on C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Joe Mixon to carry them offensively and rely on Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and Derek Stingley Jr. defensively. In contrast, the Chiefs are essentially eleven deep on both sides of the ball and even have a solid bench rotation too. Additionally, as previously mentioned, the Chiefs are hosting the game at Arrowhead Stadium where it is difficult for opposing offences to communicate due to the loud noises coming from Chiefs fans. With a better roster, better coaching on all fronts, and being the healthier team coming off a long 24-day bye period are all important reasons why the Chiefs will advance to the AFC championship once again for the seventh consecutive season.
That is it for this divisional round breakdown. Let me know what your thoughts are on this upcoming playoff matchup and if you believe the Houston Texans have any chance of winning. Comment down below what you think are the two teams that will advance to the AFC championship. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s article as I will be breaking down and analyzing the intense AFC divisional round playoff matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Stay updated by following the official X account of Blitz & Brawlers and try out our brand-new quiz!
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