AFC Wildcard Preview: Matchups and Predictions

As the 2024 NFL regular season has finally concluded, the playoff bracket is officially set and the hunt for the Lombardi trophy is officially on. In this article, I will be going through and breaking down each wildcard matchup in the AFC analyzing each team and giving my official predictions for each game. As the official one-seed, the 15-2 Kansas City Chiefs have been rewarded with a bye week in the wildcard round waiting to see which team they will play in two weeks in the divisional round. Following the current playoff structure, the Chiefs will play the lowest remaining seed in Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional round allowing them to have the easiest path to the Super Bowl in the AFC. But before we get there, let's break down and analyze each wildcard game for this upcoming week.

Firstly, the Houston Texans will open the wildcard round on Saturday at 4:30 pm EST hosting the fifth-seed Los Angeles Chargers. While the fourth-seed Texans are at home, it is evident that each team are trending in opposite directions going into the postseason. To explain, the Texans to end the season went 1-2 with embarrassing losses to the Chiefs and Ravens who are both in the playoffs. In their week 16 matchup against the Chiefs, they lost their reliable receiver Tank Dell who suffered an awful knee injury and will likely not return for the 2025 NFL season due to the severity of his injury. To add insult to injury, they were blown out by the Ravens 31-2 in week 17 where the offence was completely shut out by the inconsistent Ravens defence. While they recovered with a nice win against the Titans in week 18, there was no need for their starters to play as their position in the playoffs was locked in before their week 18 game. It is likely head coach DeMeco Ryans wanted his starters to build confidence going into the playoffs, so they played in a meaningless game risking injuring his starters before the playoffs. As for the Chargers, the 11-6 fifth seed ended their season on a positive note going 3-0. Unlike the Texans, the Chargers had a lot to play for as a win over the Raiders in week 18 allowed them to move up to the fifth seed and jump the Steelers who lost in week 18 to the Bengals. The Chargers now have a more favourable first-round matchup where they play an injured Texans team instead of traveling to Baltimore where they would have to play in cold and chaotic conditions. 

Breaking down this matchup, quarterback C.J. Stroud has had a sophomore slump as he has been sacked the second most of any player in the league due to his subpar offensive line and questionable play calling by offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The Chargers can expose the weakened Texans offensive line with veteran and pro bowl calibre edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Moreover, the Texans are missing both starting safeties which will give star cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter larger responsibilities guarding Charger receivers Ladd McConkey who has had an outstanding rookie campaign and second-year receiver Quentin Johnson who has recovered well from an slow start to his career. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will rely on his star tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater to protect him from Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. As it currently stands, the Chargers are a -3 favourite and a -165 favourite to win on the road per azcentral. As for my official prediction, I believe that the Chargers will cover the three-point spread and win comfortably against the wounded Texans who are missing many essential starters. Expect Charger head coach Jim Harbaugh to outclass DeMeco Ryans in this intense defensive showdown.

Texans vs Chargers

• Chargers -3
• Texans +3

Following the Texans and Chargers game, the two remaining AFC North teams will clash on Saturday night in Baltimore. Two-time and defending MVP Lamar Jackson who has had an outstanding 2024 regular season will look to finally win the one thing he has not won yet which is the Super Bowl. Lamar and the Ravens will begin their post-season by hosting their rival Pittsburgh Steelers in an intense showdown. While the two teams split their regular season series against each other, each team has ended their seasons in completely contrasting ways. As for the Ravens, they ended their season going undefeated with an impressive 4-0 record including a win against the Steelers. On the other hand, the Steelers ended their season 0-3 and not only lost home-field advantage as the Ravens won the AFC North, but they also lost the fifth seed by losing to the Bengals in week 18 allowing the Chargers to jump them and play the wounded Texans instead of the contending Ravens. Even though Mike Tomlin surprised the world by taking an unimpressive team back to the playoffs, they will be heavy underdogs as first-time Steeler quarterback Russell Wilson is playing his worst football as of recent. When Russell Wilson stepped in midway through the season, he and star receiver George Pickens connected on many deep play action plays contributing to their impressive 10-4 record. Now at 10-7, the Steelers will have a large mountain to climb if they want to make a postseason push. As for the Ravens, while struggling on special teams throughout the season and losing to underwhelming teams, the Ravens have proved that they can compete and defeat the best teams in the NFL as they destroyed the contending Bills in week four and also defeated other playoff contenders such as the Chargers, Commanders, and Buccaneers.

Analyzing this intense playoff matchup, the Ravens will look to take an early lead as having the lead in games is essential to their success. For details, the Ravens have the best quarterback and running back run game in football with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. While Lamar has statistically been the best quarterback in the NFL this season, the same can be said for running back Derrick Henry’s impact on the Ravens. It is evident that his 200 rushing yards vs the Bills proved he and Lamar together are nearly impossible to stop on the ground. In addition, their running attack has allowed their receivers to succeed on play-action plays as the Ravens receivers lead the league in separation by a significant amount. Even though their Pro Bowl receiver Zay Flowers is questionable for this game after sustaining an injury in week 18, the likes of receiver Rashod Bateman and tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely compliment Lamar’s underrated passing. The Steelers on the other hand will try to slow down the Ravens one-two punch with star players T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, and Alex Highsmith. It is worth mentioning that former Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen will look to bounce his former team out of the playoffs as the linebacker who will have the variety of guarding Lamar, Mark Andrews and the run game in general will be very difficult for Patrick Queen to do. Russell Wilson will also have a difficult time stopping linebacker Kyle Van Noy who is playing his best football with the Ravens in addition to their impressive secondary which consists of cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins on top of safety Kyle Hamilton. As for my official prediction, I believe the Ravens will win this game as the -529 favourite but will not cover the hefty 9.5-point spread per CBS Sports. Because it is a divisional matchup and the third time these two teams face off, I do not expect a blowout and can assume Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin can do enough to lose in the single digits. Expect the Ravens to be leading throughout the game and potentially find a game-winning stop on defence to advance themselves to the divisional round.

Ravens vs Steelers

• Ravens -9.5
• Steelers +9.5

Finally, the last AFC wildcard matchup will take place at 1 pm EST at Orchard Park as the second-seed Buffalo Bills will host the Denver Broncos. After a successful regular season going 13-4, the Buffalo Bills have earned a home playoff game for the first two rounds of the playoffs minimum assuming they can win their first playoff game this upcoming Sunday. Quarterback Josh Allen who is the current favourite to win MVP has carried this Bills offense as the Bills are the second-best team in the NFL in points per game just behind the Detroit Lions. As many critics doubted Brandon Beane’s roster due to the departure of the dramatic Stefon Diggs, the Bills have never looked better as they have locked down the second seed in the NFL in two consecutive seasons. While their defence has looked sketchy at times under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator and player caller Bobby Babich, their ability to create turnovers has allowed them to win many close games. The Broncos on the other hand have had an up-and-down season. Legendary head coach Sean Payton had many doubts about his ability to lead this Broncos team to success after two underwhelming seasons with Russell Wilson. However, after drafting Oregon quarterback Bo Nix in the first round in the 2024 NFL draft, the Broncos offence has looked significantly better due to Bo Nix’s ability to run and throw the ball accurately down the field. Even though it took the Broncos until week 18 to clinch the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoffs, the Broncos playing at their best can compete with any team in the NFL including the contending Bills.

Going into this matchup, the Broncos will have a large task of trying to stop or even slow down Josh Allen both as a passer and a runner. To Josh Allen’s credit, he is the best scrambler in football as he can avoid collapsing pockets, run to the sidelines and make impressive throws to continue and create large and impactful plays. The Broncos will attempt to keep Josh Allen in the pocket by blitzing heavily and using powerful outside linebacker Nik Bonitto to cause pressure and chaos on the Bills and Josh Allen. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Bills have one of the best offensive lines in football as the core of their offence is their pass and run blocking. Tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have done sensational jobs of protecting Josh Allen and allowing him to have time to create his MVP-level plays. The Bills also do a fantastic job at run blocking with their three-running back group using Ty Johnson to block and receive and James Cook and Ray Davis to run efficiently. Additionally, James Cook while having Josh Allen steal many rushing touchdowns is still second in the league in rushing touchdowns proving the Bills multiversal running attack is difficult to contain and deal with. Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II who is well known as the best cornerback in the NFL will be guarding Bills newly acquired receiver Amari Cooper. Opposite to Diggs, Amari Cooper cares more about winning than producing and has shown that by being a decoy and allowing other players such as Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins to produce against worse defensive players. I believe Cooper will have a quiet day against the Broncos as offensive coordinator and play caller Joe Brady will look to more favourable matchups to score and attempt to phase Surtain out of the game at the expense of sacrificing Amari Cooper’s volume. It is also important to remember that the Bills rested most of their starters this week as they already clinched the second seed in contrast to the Broncos who were still fighting for a playoff birth in their regular season finale. As for my official prediction, I believe the Bills will win as the -550 favourites but will not cover the large 8.5-point spread due to the coaching ability of Sean Payton and the Broncos impressive quality of keeping games pretty close per BetMGM. Expect the Bills to be leading by a single possession and winning the game by running out the clock through Josh Allen and James Cook in addition to finding success in the passing game through the “everybody eats”.

Bills vs Broncos

• Bills -8.5
• Broncos +8.5

Putting it all together, I expect the divisional round in the AFC to have the Chiefs host the Chargers and the Bills host the Ravens in an exciting second round of the playoffs. If you enjoyed this article, please refer to my other NFL-related articles going over other NFL playoff teams and stay tuned for tomorrow's article going over the NFC wildcard round. If you enjoyed this article, feel free to leave a question or comment and I will be able to answer everything very shortly. I also have a forum on my community page so you can make posts and create content too. Stay updated through the official Blitz & Brawlers X account where we will be posting daily articles on NFL and UFC content.