AFC Heavyweight Battle: Bills vs. Ravens Divisional Round Breakdown
- Jake Barkin
- Jan 16
- 4 min read
Every NFL postseason, there’s always one game that captures the spotlight, a matchup so intense, controversial, or unforgettable that it dominates headlines, fuels debates, and becomes a defining moment of the playoffs. Going into the divisional round, everyone is anticipated for Sunday night’s thriller where the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Baltimore Ravens. The reigning 2023 MVP going head-to-head against the expected 2024 MVP where the winner clinches a spot in the AFC championship and the loser falls short of their goal once again. The stakes could not get any bigger for either team.
Earlier this season, the two teams met in Baltimore back in week 4 where the Ravens dominated the Bills in every aspect of football defeating them 35-10. In that game, Ravens running back Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards and had both a rushing and receiving touchdown. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson killed the Bills using read option which has been working so well this entire season as that was one of the best plays they used in their wildcard win last weekend against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Furthermore, the Bills were inefficient on third downs on both sides of the ball. For the Bills offence, they would consistently get stopped on third down which led to punting the ball back to the Ravens instead of going for it on 4th and short at midfield. This conservative approach led by Bills head coach Sean McDermott was a key reason the Bills lost this week 4 duel. By giving the ball back so quickly, the Ravens dominated the time of possession which is a common factor in every Bills loss this season. Additionally, the Bills defence was exhausted as they were on the field for most of the game trying to stop the explosive run game between Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. While this game took place back in September, I expect the Baltimore Ravens to try to follow the same game plan in the rematch this weekend.
Breaking down this matchup, the Bills offence which has been the bright spot of the team will be going against the best-performing defence in the NFL in the second half of the season. After the Ravens lost some very questionable games earlier in the season, Ravens head coach Jon Harbaugh has turned things around for his defence as they have been forcing more turnovers, getting off the field more consistently, and allowing fewer points every game. Combining their improved defence with the best rushing attack in the NFL makes it nearly impossible for other teams to win. However, the Ravens are not just playing any ordinary team, they will have to travel to Buffalo where they will be facing the second-ranked offence in the NFL led by the heavy favourite to win MVP Josh Allen. Even with the loss of the receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason, the Bills added to their weaponry by drafting receiver Keon Coleman who is elite at contested catches and acquired receivers Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, and Amari Cooper who have all played a role in the Bills “everybody eats” offence. In a year where the Bills were expected to regress heavily, redefining their selfless culture has gone a long way for this team as they clinched the AFC East in only thirteen weeks and clinched the second seed before the season even ended. It is also worth mentioning that the Bills effortlessly dropped 31 points on the Denver Broncos who have the best cornerback in the NFL Pat Surtain II and the fourth-ranked overall defence in the NFL. The result of this game will be one team’s biggest playoff victory in many years and will be the other team's worst playoff loss in many years too.
As for my official prediction, I believe the Bills will just squeeze out the win at home leaving Ravens fans very devastated and heartbroken. As a one-point underdog per CBS Sports, this game cannot be any closer and I expect the Bills to win by less than three points. While many expect the Bills defence to get exposed once again by the Ravens offence, many do not realize the Bills were without three of their most important defenders. To be specific, the Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard who are the two most important players on the field regarding stopping the run. While I expect the Ravens to still find success running the ball, the Bills will put up a bigger fight and will also find success in stopping the run. Moreover, the Bills were also missing slot cornerback Taron Johnson who is one of the best at his position in the entire NFL. Expect Taron Johnson to be guarding Ravens tight end Mark Andrews as the Ravens love having two tight ends on the field as opposed to a third slot receiver. I expect Taron Johnson to shut down Andrews completely and even maybe force a turnover similar to his 100-yard pick-six in the divisional round against the Ravens four years ago where he lurked a touchdown pass targeting Mark Andrews. Another factor in this game is the extreme cold weather which only helps the Bills as Josh Allen’s performances in this bad weather have been consistent, unlike Lamar Jackson who will be a lot worse as a passer. If the Bills can shut down or even slow down the Ravens rushing offence, the Bills will heavily succeed against Lamar in the air, especially in this cold weather.
That is it for this divisional round breakdown. Let me know what your thoughts are on this upcoming playoff matchup and if you believe the Bills or Ravens will advance to the AFC championship. Comment down below who you believe is the MVP this season between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Stay tuned for tomorrow’s article as I will be breaking down and analyzing the intense NFC divisional round playoff matchup between the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders. Stay updated by following the official X account of Blitz & Brawlers and try out our brand-new quiz!
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