UFC 311 Breakdown

As we celebrate the new year, UFC is kicking off its first pay-per-view event on January 18th in Inglewood California at the newly built Intuit Dome home of the Los Angeles Clippers. The new arena built by Steve Ballmer is amazing and those in attendance will have a great experience watching UFC 311 in person. This article post will cover and break down each fight on the main card and other fighters on the prelims to look out for.

In the main event, defending Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev will take on the number one contender Arman Tsarukyan in an intense title fight rematch. The champion Islam last fought at UFC 302 where he successfully defended his lightweight throne against the gritty veteran Dustin “Diamond” Poirier. Islam expectedly was dominant in the five-round thriller with his ground game landing several takedowns. What surprised many fans was that Makhachev was also efficient with his striking. Even though he has shown his proficient striking in previous title fights against Alexander Volkanovski and Charles Oliveira, striking against someone as great as Dustin Poirier is extremely difficult. Even though Islam suffered a fair amount of damage throughout the fight, he found a d’arce choke in the fifth round securing another impressive finish to his outstanding resume. On the other hand, Arman Tsarukyan last fought in April of 2024 at UFC 300 where he took place in an entertaining three-round fight for the number one contender spot and an opportunity of fighting for the Lightweight title against Charles Oliveira. Throughout the three rounds, Tsarukyan was more dominant in the grappling aspect having two takedowns to Charles’ zero. Tsarukyan also was more active in the striking. However, Do Bronx on the other hand had four serious submission attempts most of them were very close to ending the fight. In the end, Arman was granted the winner via a split decision which some believe was a controversial decision.

Breaking down this matchup, I expect similar to their first fight when they were both young contenders to be a grappling and wrestling-heavy fight. For Islam, training under Javier Mendez and long-time friend, training partner, and hall of famer Khabib Nurmagomedov has made Makhachev elite at Russian sambo. For Tsarukyan, he is a well-balanced fighter who can knock out and submit his opponents. Arman’s style is to use his wrestling and takedowns as a threat to his opponents to look out for which only helps and disguises Tsarukyan’s elite striking. While their first fight was almost only wrestling, I expect striking to still be a factor in the rematch as clinching positions along the fence are common among wrestlers that fight each other. As my official prediction, I believe Islam Makhachev will get his hand raised and will win by unanimous decision. It is evident that Makhachev has five rounds of experience and his cardio will be on display, especially in the championship rounds. I still think the fight is going to be somewhat close as Arman is still a very talented mixed martial artist and has shown in his last fight he can grind out and survive in very dangerous conditions. Tsarukyan has never been finished in his career and I believe he will be able to keep that streak alive even though it is likely he will not win the fight as a whole. Either way, these are clearly the top two lightweights in their division and it should be a very exciting fight in just a couple of weeks.

In the co-main event, defending bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will take on undefeated number two-ranked contender Umar Nurmagomedov. Umar has been training with Islam Makhachev in preparation for his first title shot and is also being coached under the great Javier Mendez and cousin Khabib Nurmagomedov. Merab Dvalishvili last fought at the Sphere in Las Vegas at Noche UFC where he dominated the popular and talented Sean O’Malley exhibiting his magnificent ground game. While many believed the fight was boring due to Merab’s wrestling fighting style, his six takedowns and constant pressure prohibited O’Malley from using his dangerous striking whatsoever. While O’Malley is recovering from a surgery and will be watching this title fight, he will most likely get a chance to fight for his former belt even though many believe he does not deserve another chance just yet. Merab is on an eleven-fight win streak and has not lost since 2018. It is interesting to point out that he has only one finish in the UFC where he got a TKO victory against Marlon Moraes back in 2021. His opponent Umar Nurmagomedov last fought in August against Cory Sandhagen in a five-round fight night main event. Similarly to O’Malley, Sanhagen is notoriously known for his elite striking but was unsuccessful in causing any serious damage against Umar. Nurmagomedov landed five takedowns throughout the fight and just like Merab his aggressive pressure in addition to his wrestling technique rewarded him with a smooth unanimous decision victory. 

Now breaking down this intense fight, it is important to mention that these two fighters have a dark history against each other. Immediately after Merab’s impressive victory against Suga at Noche UFC, it was expected Merab and Umar would be the next fight to make some point towards the end of 2024. Due to O’Malley’s popularity, Merab offered the UFC to rematch O’Malley immediately but Umar and fans of the sport did not take a liking to his idea. Once O’Malley announced he would be taking an extended break, it was imminent that Umar was next up but it still took all the way until December for Merab to call out and accept the title fight against Umar hence why it is in January and not sometime in 2024. Throughout this entire process, Umar and Merab have exchanged distasteful words for each other in person and online. After causing chaos after their press conference promoting their fight, they had to be separated and Merab was even denied access to the UFCPI while Umar was in the building. Looking into this fight, Merab is not known for his striking abilities but is known for having the best cardio in the UFC allowing him to shoot takedowns consistently throughout his fights. Umar on the other hand is known for his Russian sambo and wrestling as his most prolific fighting style. Unlike Merab, Umar has a fifty percent finish record inside the UFC proving he can win by knockout or submission. Additionally, while Merab is as tough as it gets for a fighter, he has a questionable chin as he has been wobbled by many of his opponents in the past. For my official prediction, I believe Umar will remain undefeated and gain the bantamweight title that he has been working so hard for. Umar’s key to victory is to slow down and defend Merab’s malicious takedowns and the longer the fight goes on, the easier it will be for Umar to defend those takedowns. Merab can easily be in serious trouble if his takedowns are unsuccessful as he does not have a plan B. Umar should be able to land serious shots and find the finish in the championship rounds and will most likely call out O’Malley after the fight attempting to recreate a Khabib McGregor rivalry for his first title defense.

In the featured fight of UFC 311, the comedic and popular Renato Moicano will be taking on veteran Beneil Daruish in a three-round fight in the lightweight division. Renato is currently on a four-fight win streak where he last headlined UFC Paris as he defeated the prospect in Benoit Saint-Denis by TKO at the end of the second round. Opposite to Moicano, Beneil is on a two-fight losing skid after getting knocked out by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan back to back. While losing to two of the division's finest is not something to be completely ashamed of, they both took place in the first round and as Beneil’s career is nearing its end, it is paramount for Dariush to get back into the winning collum before retiring. Just like the main and co-main events, both fighters have a solid ground game. For Renato Moicano, he is dangerous on the feet but uses his wrestling to advance himself into even better positions. For instance, Moicano’s win over Jalin Turner at UFC 300 proved that a balance of takedowns and ground and pound is a great way to overcome an athletic striker. For Beneil, he relies on his striking unless he is fighting against opponents that he is superior on the ground. Against Renato, Beneil is going to struggle to find a takedown against someone with spectacular Brazilian Jiu Jitsu such as Moicano. Therefore, I predict Renato Moicano to find a finish during the fight resulting in a TKO. Not only is Moicano powerful, Beneil’s chin is getting weaker and weaker the more he gets knocked out. Moicano will use his poise and patience to land a fight-altering shot and will patiently find a finish either through ground and pound or a submission.

Moving down the main card, former light-heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill will collide in a three-round banger. While each fighter is coming off of knockout losses to the current champion Alex Pereira, each fighter has already defeated Alex’s head coach Glover Texiera to win the light-heavyweight championship. Even though top contender Magomed Ankalaev has paid his dues for his title fight opportunity, the winner of this fight will put themselves back into the mix and can even merit their title shot with a win at UFC 311. For Jamahal Hill, he never lost the title as he tore his achillies and vacated the title. In his return, he headlined the biggest card of all time in UFC 300 where after a sudden pause in the fight due to an illegal kick, Jamahal was thrown off guard and fell victim to Poatan’s signature left hook. While many saw this as a major step back in Hill’s career, he thought the fight was a fluke and is looking to rematch the champion with an outstanding performance against Jiri. Moreover, Prochazka was brutally knocked out by Poatan at UFC 303 seconds into the second round via head kick after he was already dizzy from a buzzer-beater left hook at the end of the first round. Unfortunately for Jiri, this was his second loss in the UFC both to Alex Pereira. Even with a win against Jamahal Hill, it is unlikely he will immediately get his third rematch against Pereira. As for this matchup, both fighters have shown limited skill on the ground with Jiri being the only one to have a single submission win. However, both fighters are well known for their power, skilled striking, and highlight knockouts. Jamahal’s biggest highlight came in the main event of a fight night against Johnny Walker where a grazed punch to the temple knocked out Walker cold. For Jiri, his best win came against former title challenger Dominic Reyes where he landed a walkoff spinning elbow to win his fight. As for my prediction, while Jiri is a more talented striker, his chin is very vulnerable and even with Jamahal’s unorthodox striking technique, the power in his punches and kicks will be too much for someone who cannot handle strikes that well. I believe Hill will find the finish in the later rounds once enough damage has been taken to Prochazka. This fight has the potential to be the fight of the night and performance of the night as this is the most talented striking matchup we will be watching at UFC 311.

To open up the main card, the veteran and entertaining Kevin Holland will be taking on the Dutch knight Reinier de Ridder. For Holland, he is one and three in his last four and will be looking to bounce back with a win after losing his last fight from a rib injury at UFC 307 to Roman Dolidze. While he has been going back and forth between welterweight and middleweight, the trailblazer prefers to cut less weight and fight in the heavier middleweight class. For Reinier, this is only his second UFC appearance even at 34 with an impressive 18-2 record. His UFC debut was a success where he defeated Gerald Meerschaert in November of 2024 via an arm triangle submission in the third round. While he landed five takedowns before finding a submission, the striking exchange with a low-ranked middleweight has fans questioning if he can handle everything Kevin Holland has to offer. For my official prediction, I think the UFC is attempting to give Kevin Holland an easier middleweight opponent that is a favourable matchup for him. To provide context, de Ridder’s striking is questionable and his wrestling while impressive should not be too much for Holland to overcome. Assuming Holland can use his grappling skills to avoid being on the bottom, his striking will allow him to cause enough damage to the UFC newcomer to either win a decisive decision or even a knockout finish. It would not even be surprising if Kevin Hollan used his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills to find a submission, as well as the trailblazer, is fast and very well-balanced in all aspects of mixed martial arts.

As for the prelims, compared to other pay-per-view cards, there are many really good fighters to look out for early on in the night. As previously mentioned Johnny Walker who is very entertaining yet inconsistent is looking to bounce back as he is headlining the prelims against Bogdan Guskov as a +100 slight underdog. If Walker can avoid getting finished early, I expect the Brazilian to have an impressive and decisive victory if it comes by knockout or decision. Additionally, undefeated prospect Payton Talbott is fighting as well coming in as a massive -1100 favourite against Raoni Barcelos where I expect Talbott to get another early knockout victory. Heavyweight contender Jailton Almeida will be using his impressive wrestling skills against striker Serghei Spivac where I believe Almeida will use his grappling abilities to find an early submission victory. To conclude, UFC 311 is an outstanding card to kick off 2025 for the UFC and am excited to see how each fight plays out including the highly anticipated two title fights. Let me know in the comments how you feel about this card and your predictions for any fight on UFC 311. If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, I have built a UFC forum page in my community to talk all things UFC so please do not be shy to give your opinion on anything UFC-related. Thanks for reading this article and stay tuned for more daily article posts.